Model Performance

Model performance — updated monthly

Real accuracy numbers from genuine out-of-sample predictions. No cherry-picking, no hindsight.

52.2%
Overall accuracy
Based on 1,472 predictions, Aug 2025 – Apr 2026
1,472
Total predictions
Flat stake ROI
Negative ROI is normal — bookmaker margin (~5%) requires 53%+ accuracy to profit

Per-league breakdown

Winner Prediction Accuracy

2025/26 season · out-of-sample

LeaguePredictionsAccuracyvs Bookmaker
Bundesliga
13555.6%+5.6%
Serie A
17355.5%+5.5%
73552.5%+2.5%
Premier League
16150.3%+0.3%
Ligue 1
11749.6%-0.4%
La Liga
14949.0%-1.0%
Eredivisie
2

What the numbers meancontext

Random guessing (3-way)~33%
Always picking home team~46%
Our model (overall)52.2%
Best league55.6%

For reference: professional sports betting services typically achieve 52-56% on 3-way markets.

Transparency commitmenttransparency

We update these numbers after every pipeline run (every 3-4 days). We don't cherry-pick good weeks or hide bad results.

All predictions are logged before kickoff — no hindsight. Every prediction shown on this page was generated before the match started, using only data available at the time.

Football is inherently unpredictable. No model can account for injuries announced 30 minutes before kick-off, red cards, or a goalkeeper having the game of their life. Our confidence scores reflect this uncertainty.

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