About oddsly

AI meets football intelligence

Built by a developer who loves football and machine learning. We use LightGBM trained on 100+ match features to find edges the bookmakers miss — then show you exactly how confident the model is.

The model

LightGBM per league

Each league has different characteristics — the Bundesliga is high-scoring, Serie A is defensive, La Liga is tactical. We train separate gradient-boosted models per league with Optuna hyperparameter optimization for maximum accuracy.

100+ features

Form streaks, ELO ratings, expected goals (xG), player availability, head-to-head records, shot statistics, home/away splits, and dozens more. Every feature is engineered from raw match data, not scraped from tipster sites.

Exact score prediction

For exact score predictions, we derive scorelines from the LightGBM probability outputs, accounting for league-specific scoring patterns and home/away goal distributions.

Temporal validation

We never test on data the model has “seen.” All accuracy numbers come from strict temporal splits — training on the past, predicting the future. 140 days of genuine out-of-sample results, not cherry-picked backtests.

Honest accuracy numbers

Winner prediction accuracy per league · 140-day backtest

Bundesliga
59%
Serie A
55%
Premier League
52%
Ligue 1
49%
La Liga
47%
Over/Under 2.5 goals56%

Data sources

football-data.org

Match results, standings, fixtures, and team data for all 8 leagues

The Odds API

Real-time bookmaker odds from 20+ bookmakers worldwide

understat.com

Expected goals (xG), shot data, and advanced match statistics

Why oddsly is different

No tipster bias

Pure statistical model. No human gut feeling, no narrative-driven picks, no 'insider tips.' Just data, features, and gradient-boosted trees.

Honest transparency

We show you when the model is uncertain. Every prediction comes with a confidence score, probability breakdown, and expected value calculation. No hiding behind vague language.

Real backtesting

140 days of genuine out-of-sample predictions. Not simulated, not retroactively fitted. Every prediction was made before the match kicked off and verified after.

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Get in touch

Questions, feedback, or partnership inquiries?

hello@oddsly.app