Full transparency on how our model performs. No cherry-picked numbers — we show every league, including the ones where accuracy is lower. 140 days of genuine out-of-sample evaluation.
140-day out-of-sample backtest · Aug 2025 — Mar 2026
Highest accuracy — high-scoring league with clear patterns
Strong home advantage signal captured by the model
Most competitive league — tighter margins, harder to predict
PSG dominance helps baseline; mid-table is volatile
Tactical and low-scoring — draws are harder to predict
A random guess on a 3-way market (home/draw/away) would hit about 33% of the time. Bookmaker-implied odds, which represent the market consensus, typically achieve around 48-52% accuracy. Our model operates at 47-59% depending on the league, meaning it provides an edge in most cases — but not all.
The Bundesliga (59%) and Serie A (55%) show the strongest results because these leagues have more predictable patterns — the Bundesliga is high-scoring with clear home advantages, and Serie A has strong defensive tendencies.
La Liga (47%) is our weakest league. It's a tactical, low-scoring competition where draws are common and hard to predict. We include this number because transparency matters more than looking good.
We publish accuracy numbers for every league, including ones where the model underperforms. La Liga at 47% is barely above the random baseline of 33%, and we show that openly.
We don't retroactively fit the model to improve past numbers. We don't exclude bad predictions from the backtest. We don't cherry-pick time periods where the model happened to perform well.
Football is inherently unpredictable. No model can account for injuries announced 30 minutes before kick-off, red cards, or a goalkeeper having the game of their life. Our confidence scores reflect this uncertainty.
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